The Main Card
Feel free to enjoy this episode of the Open GuardCast, where I ramble for a while about tonight’s event! Let’s take a look at each match individually on the main card for WNO23, live from Arlington, Texas at the College Park Center.
Diogo “Baby Shark” Reis vs. Shay Montague
Opening up the main card, Shay Montague is given a shot at glory with the 2022 ADCC World Champion at -66kgs, Diogo Reis. Stylistically, Diogo is very difficult to amount significant offense on, but Shay is a confident competitor in every match he enters. Recently, Shay was a member of the dominant “Euro Trash” team at the AIGA Champions League Qualifier in Kemer, Turkiye, and Diogo has not seen the mats since losing the WNO title to Diego “Pato” Oliveira in a match that left him injured. Statistically speaking, Diogo is the safe choice here, but don’t ever count out Glasgow’s most dangerous man.
Pick: Shay Montague via submission
Jasmine Rocha vs. Emily Ferreira
Jasmine Rocha has been getting better and better with every competition she enters. After several ADCC Open victories in both her division and the absolute, she finally claimed the elusive goal of winning ADCC Trials this year and showed significant improvement with her capstone submission victory over Alex Enriquez in the final. Emily Ferreira has been active in her own pursuit of success both with and without the gi, showcasing impressive victories in both the IBJJF and in the budding super-showcase ADXC. Expect Jasmine to come in very confident, and for Emily Ferreira to come out as an underdog with a fire lit under her.
Pick: Jasmine Rocha via choke from the back
JT Torres vs. Nicky Ryan
This one is particularly interesting to me. In the OGC episode above I made a remark about the experience factor for JT, but as I write this article I am having second thoughts. Nicky Ryan has been around this game for a long time. This matchup is more or less dependent on whether Nicky can submit JT quickly, or if JT can drag him into the deeper end of the 15-minutes. Torres locks down competitors with crushing pressure and very effective wrestling offense/defense, but if Nicky Ryan shows up and hits his groove there isn’t many who can stop him.
Pick: JT Torres by decision
Felipe Pena vs. Rafael Lovato Jr.
In my mind, this match will either be an interesting display of timeless jiu-jitsu fundamentals, or it will be a stalemate wrestling match for 15 minutes. This is not a slight to either competitor, I am thinking of odds. In Lovato’s last match on the WNO stage in a razor-thin decision loss to Pedro Marinho, there was scarcely any time spent on the ground. I don’t see Lovato pulling guard in this matchup, so I would think that the way this match turns out is heavily predicated on whether Pena pulls guard. That being said, I am very excited for this one.
Pick: Felipe Pena by decision
Andrew Tackett vs. Tommy Langaker
What a matchup. Tackett is coming off of a gold medal performance across the 2024 ADCC West Coast Trials and Tommy Langaker has looked sharper and sharper in his time spent without the gi. This is a battle between two men who make taking the back look artistic. Andrew is certainly less “by the book” than Tommy in certain respects, but Tommy’s creativity cannot be ignored in either gi or no-gi. I think this matchup boils down to how Tommy responds to the unorthodox approach of Andrew and who is able to open an opportunity for the back first. They have both proven that they only need one opportunity.
Pick: Andrew Tackett via RNC
Nicholas Meregali vs. Vagner Rocha
The main event of the evening. The ever-confident Nicholas Meregali puts his win streak on the line vs. the veteran Vagner Rocha. The statistics point to Meregali. The skill-for-skill points to Meregali. There is not a lot of space that I could use to make a strong case for a Vagner Rocha victory here, but – Vagner does have a very realistic path to victory in this match. Take a look at this Instagram clip from the WNO Press Conference via FloGrappling:
Vagner has this insane ability to get in the head of his opponents. Now, I am not purporting that Vagner is in Meregali’s head by any means, but if there is anyone who can do it, It’s VRMA’s leader. Expect a very vocal and confident Vagner Rocha regardless of where the match goes tomorrow night. As far as how Meregali responds to the mind games, we haven’t really seen yet, but the possibility of a Vagner Rocha upset may just depend on it.
Thanks for checking this out, be sure to check out the Prelims live on YouTube, I’ll be the official Ring Announcer and M.C. of the event!
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